Nomura Report: AI Creating More Jobs Than Cuts in India 2026

 A recent report by Nomura Holdings has delivered a significant verdict on the debate surrounding artificial intelligence and employment: in India, the technology is currently creating more jobs than it eliminates. The study, conducted by Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, positions India as a critical "ground zero" for observing AI's real-world impact on the global labor market, given its role as a back-office service hub for the world. However, the headline figures mask a complex reality: while the net employment impact is positive, the type of jobs being created and the skills required are rapidly diverging from those being lost, creating a "two-tier" labor market.

Who is Driving the Shift? 3 New Players- If TCS, Infosys and Wipro are not hiring like before, then who is hiring? Nomura found 3 new players who are hiring more than they are firing.

1. GCCs - The Real King- Global Capability Centers are the biggest drivers. Companies like JPMorgan, Walmart, Target, and HSBC have opened big offices in Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune. They are not called back offices anymore. They are doing AI, Cloud and Data work.

Nomura says a fresher in a GCC gets 12-18 LPA average, while in traditional IT it is 3.5-6 LPA. In 2026, GCCs will hire 35% more freshers than last year.

2. AI-First Startups- The second player is AI startups. Companies that are making AI products - like Sarvam AI, Krutrim, and other 100+ startups in Bangalore. They need people who know Python, Prompt Engineering, and Data Cleaning. They are hiring 10,000+ freshers in 2026 alone.

3. Non-IT Companies Going Tech- Third are banks, hospitals and factories. HDFC Bank needs AI people, Apollo Hospitals needs data people, and Tata Motors needs cloud people. Nomura calls this "Tech outside Tech". This sector alone created 2.1 lakh new tech jobs in the last 6 months.

The Numbers: A Net Positive Outcome- The Nomura report analyzed 69 cases across Asia, covering the period from 2022 to August 2026. The findings for India are striking. The study recorded approximately 83,100 job postings in artificial intelligence-related positions. In contrast, layoffs and natural attrition linked to AI automation accounted for about 31,900 positions. This represents a net increase where, for roughly every one job displaced by AI, nearly three new ones are being created. This data provides a strong counter-narrative to the widespread fear that AI will inevitably lead to mass unemployment.

The "Ground Zero" Phenomenon- India's unique position in the global economy makes it a key test case. As a primary destination for global enterprise back-office services and IT outsourcing, it is bearing the "largest absolute impact" of the AI wave. The report argues that due to its vast workforce and deep integration with the global tech sector, India is the most representative frontier for assessing AI's impact on employment. The sheer scale of the transition means that India is effectively a living laboratory for the future of work.

Who is losing? The Displaced Roles- The job losses identified in the report are not distributed evenly. The primary victims are in specific, routine-based functions. Layoffs are concentrated in customer service and support roles, which are increasingly being replaced by AI-powered chatbots and automated systems. These are often entry-level positions that involve repetitive tasks, making them highly susceptible to automation. The report suggests that AI is compressing demand for such entry-level positions, posing a significant challenge for a country like India, which needs to create millions of jobs annually for its young, growing population.

Who is winning? The New AI Hires- On the other side of the equation, the new jobs are being generated in a completely different segment of the labor market. The 83,100 new roles are predominantly for technical talent, such as AI specialists, engineers, and data scientists, being hired by IT service companies to meet the surging demand for AI solutions. As Sonal Varma noted, the challenge is that entry-level routine jobs are being displaced while mid-level jobs are transforming, creating a "dual labor market".

Conclusion: A Dual Labor Market Emerges- The Nomura report offers a nuanced perspective on AI's impact in India. The headline data is positive—a net increase of over 51,000 jobs—suggesting that AI is a job creator. However, this creation comes with a critical caveat. It is accelerating the formation of a two-tier labor market: one for low-skilled, routine workers whose jobs are at risk of automation, and another for highly skilled, technically proficient professionals who are in high demand. India is not just a cost center but is becoming a strategic innovation hub for global AI operations. The report’s findings highlight that while the country is benefiting from AI, the benefits are not universal. The real challenge for India is not merely the net number of jobs created but the urgent need for massive reskilling and upskilling initiatives to enable its workforce to move from the jobs being automated to the jobs being created. India is not just the "control room" for the global AI revolution, but also its proving ground for how the human workforce can adapt and thrive.